Cut to 8 designs, and order 8,551 new units, not the full 10,500 target. The keyword data shows the ties sell on generic "christmas tie" searches shared by 13 to 18 SKUs, so the extra designs cannibalize rather than add reach (raw.search_query_performance). Keep the two that own the plaid and bow tie niche, the best-converting designs for the generic grid, and reprice two popular-but-underwater ones. Then subtract what you already hold: 1,949 units, mostly the 1,281 leftover Bowtie still in FBA plus 600 Red Plaid Tie already inbound.
2025 Sold from sheet 1225. Margin from agg.profit_daily. Target quantity and target price are my recommendation. On hand is current FBA available plus inbound plus warehouse (fba_restock + warehouse_inventory, 2026-06-24). Net to order is target minus on hand.
| Keep (8) | 2025 sold | Margin | Target 2026 | On hand | Net to order | Price action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Plaid Tie | 2,016 | 29% | 4,000 | 600 | 3,400 | Hold $11.34 (year-round seller) |
| Bowtie Red Plaid | 2,219 | 24% | 2,400 | 1,281 | 1,119 | Hold $7.19 (1,281 already in FBA) |
| Snowflakes on Parade | 558 | 33% | 1,000 | 0 | 1,000 | Hold $8.17 |
| Santa & Friends | 436 | 26% | 850 | 8 | 842 | Hold $9.16 |
| O Christmas Tree | 503 | 23% | 850 | 8 | 842 | Hold $8.62 |
| Let it Snow | 253 | -9% | 450 | 1 | 449 | Reprice $5.17 to $8.00 |
| Snowflakes R&W | 347 | 19% | 400 | 25 | 375 | Nudge $7.88 to $8.50 |
| Tree Navy Blue | 485 | -2% | 550 | 26 | 524 | Reprice $8.26 to $9.00 |
| Total (sold: sheet 1225; target + price: my plan; on hand: fba_restock + warehouse_inventory) | 10,500 | 1,949 | 8,551 | |||
Leftover: yes, fully visible and subtracted. You hold 1,949 units of the keep-list, dominated by the 1,281 Bowtie still in FBA from the 2025 overbuy and the 600 Red Plaid Tie already inbound (fba_restock, 2026-06-24). That is why net-to-order (8,551) is well below target (10,500).
Removal order: could not isolate it in the data, flagging for you to confirm. Nothing shows as disposed, the FC-to-FC transfers net to zero (1,536 in, 1,495 out), and the warehouse feed shows zero for these SKUs (raw.inventory_ledger_daily, raw.warehouse_inventory). So the removed units were most likely either already sent back into FBA, in which case they are inside the on-hand above (the Bowtie 1,281 or the Red Plaid 600 inbound are the likely candidates), or they were removed for SKUs you are cutting anyway. If they are sitting in a 3PL this data does not cover, the PO drops further. Worth a quick confirm on where those units physically are.
Each lost money, ran on expensive ads, or is a redundant or small-base design with no distinct keyword demand. Cutting them does not shrink the line's search reach.
| Cut | 2025 margin | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Jolly Snowman | -43% | Worst SKU. Lost $922, paid crutch, left 193 units. |
| Berry Blue | -8% | Low price, lost money, left stock. |
| Ho Ho Ho! | -7% | Sold out but at a loss. Redundant with Santa & Friends. |
| Santa is Coming | -5% | Most ad-dependent (61%), lost money, left stock. |
| Made For Christmas | -3% | Lost money and left 83 units. |
| Mean Green | 7% | Thin margin, tiny volume. |
| Tropical XMAS | 7% | Thin and ad-heavy, off-theme. |
| Lit Like a Tree | 8% | Thin, redundant tree (O Christmas Tree covers it). |
| Preppy Reindeer | 22% | Small-base sellout: 104 units on 32 clicks, 1 search purchase all season. No real demand signal. |
| Jingle Jaws | 17% | Small base (224), thin margin, did not fully sell out. Weak pull. |
Search Query Performance for all 18 ties, Oct to Dec 2025 (raw.search_query_performance, pulled 2026-06-24). The top terms are generic and shared by almost every SKU.
| Top search query | SKUs it drives | Purchases | Clicks |
|---|---|---|---|
| christmas tie | 17 | 330 | 3,303 |
| christmas ties for men | 18 | 192 | 2,127 |
| mens christmas tie | 14 | 56 | 530 |
| christmas ties | 16 | 54 | 720 |
| red plaid tie (niche) | 2 | 51 | 277 |
| christmas bow ties for men (niche) | 2 | 67 | 270 |
57% of purchases and 69% of clicks come from queries shared by 2 or more SKUs (raw.search_query_performance). The only design dimension with its own search volume is plaid and bow tie, which is why the Red Plaid Tie and Bowtie are the top two sellers. Cutting redundant designs does not lose demand: it flows to whichever designs stay on the grid.
Net margin is after COGS, FBA, referral, refunds, and ads (agg.profit_daily). Red rows lost money.
| Product | ASP | Net profit | Net margin | Ad share | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snowflakes on Parade | $8.17 | $1,566 | 33% | 7% | Keep |
| Red Plaid Tie | $11.34 | $7,077 | 29% | 12% | Keep |
| Santa & Friends | $9.16 | $1,055 | 26% | 1% | Keep |
| Bowtie Red Plaid | $7.19 | $4,710 | 24% | 22% | Keep |
| O Christmas Tree | $8.62 | $1,020 | 23% | 17% | Keep |
| Preppy Reindeer | $7.23 | $167 | 22% | 8% | Cut (tiny base) |
| Snowflakes R&W | $7.88 | $534 | 19% | 29% | Keep |
| Jingle Jaws | $7.64 | $292 | 17% | 2% | Cut (small base) |
| Lit Like a Tree | $7.87 | $299 | 8% | 36% | Cut |
| Mean Green | $8.76 | $88 | 7% | 15% | Cut |
| Tropical XMAS | $8.34 | $169 | 7% | 46% | Cut |
| Tree Navy Blue | $8.26 | -$72 | -2% | 53% | Reprice + keep |
| Made For Christmas | $7.24 | -$104 | -3% | 39% | Cut |
| Santa is Coming | $7.63 | -$71 | -5% | 61% | Cut |
| Ho Ho Ho! | $7.50 | -$169 | -7% | 55% | Cut |
| Berry Blue | $6.81 | -$59 | -8% | 37% | Cut |
| Let it Snow | $5.17 | -$118 | -9% | 26% | Reprice + keep |
| Jolly Snowman | $5.68 | -$922 | -43% | 55% | Cut |
Price. The binding constraint is the FBA fee of $2.64 to $4.25 per unit (agg.profit_daily), which sinks any tie under $7. The two "reprice" SKUs sold out, which proves demand to charge more. Lift them toward $8 to $9 and they swing from losers to earners without losing volume.
Timing. Land the buy before Amazon's early-October Prime event (2025 stock arrived Oct 23 to 28 and missed it), and schedule a December replenishment on the proven earners so they do not run dry mid-December again (raw.inventory_ledger_daily).