Adding margin flips the plan from "grow what sold out" to "grow what makes money." Seven of the 18 ties were net-negative for the season, and three of those actually sold out (sheet 1225, agg.profit_daily). On a flat FBA fee of $2.64 to $4.25 per unit (agg.profit_daily), any tie priced under $7 cannot cover its costs no matter how fast it sells. So a fast sellout at a $5 price is a loss generator, not a winner.
The profit is concentrated: the Red Plaid Tie ($7,077), the Bowtie ($4,710), and Snowflakes on Parade ($1,566) make 86% of the line's net profit (agg.profit_daily). The revised buy puts units behind those and the other true earners, reprices the popular-but-underwater SKUs, and cuts the money-losers that did not even sell through.
Sorted by net margin. ASP is average selling price. Net profit and net margin are after COGS, FBA, referral, refunds, and ads. ACOS and ad share show paid dependence. Anything red lost money for the season.
| Product | ASP | Net profit | Net margin | ACOS | Ad share | Sold out? | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snowflakes on Parade | $8.17 | $1,566 | 33% | 39% | 7% | yes | Top margin, organic, sold out. Grow. |
| Red Plaid Tie | $11.34 | $7,077 | 29% | 16% | 12% | yes | The engine. High price absorbs FBA. Grow hardest. |
| Santa & Friends | $9.16 | $1,055 | 26% | 38% | 1% | yes | Organic, sold out. Grow. |
| Bowtie Red Plaid | $7.19 | $4,710 | 24% | 50% | 22% | no | #2 profit SKU. Low COGS, low FBA. Keep, just cap the overbuy. |
| O Christmas Tree | $8.62 | $1,020 | 23% | 43% | 17% | yes | Sold out, profitable. Grow. |
| Preppy Reindeer | $7.23 | $167 | 22% | 38% | 8% | yes | Small base, profitable, sold out. Scale up. |
| Snowflakes R&W | $7.88 | $534 | 19% | 15% | 29% | no | Profitable, slight overbuy. Hold. |
| Jingle Jaws | $7.64 | $292 | 17% | 93% | 2% | near | Profitable, nearly cleared. Modest grow. |
| Lit Like a Tree | $7.87 | $299 | 8% | 29% | 36% | yes | Thin. Sold out but barely profitable. Hold. |
| Mean Green | $8.76 | $88 | 7% | 46% | 15% | yes | Thin profit, tiny base. Small. |
| Tropical XMAS | $8.34 | $169 | 7% | 37% | 46% | yes | Thin, ad-heavy. Hold or trim. |
| Tree Navy Blue | $8.26 | -$72 | -2% | 39% | 53% | yes | Sold out at a small loss. Reprice up or cut. |
| Made For Christmas | $7.24 | -$104 | -3% | 37% | 39% | no | Lost money and left stock. Cut. |
| Santa is Coming | $7.63 | -$71 | -5% | 56% | 61% | no | Paid crutch, lost money, left stock. Cut. |
| Ho Ho Ho! | $7.50 | -$169 | -7% | 41% | 55% | yes | Sold out at a loss. Reprice up or cut. |
| Berry Blue | $6.81 | -$59 | -8% | 43% | 37% | no | Low price, lost money, left stock. Cut. |
| Let it Snow | $5.17 | -$118 | -9% | 8% | 26% | yes | Popular but priced too low to clear FBA. Reprice up first. |
| Jolly Snowman | $5.68 | -$922 | -43% | 57% | 55% | no | Worst SKU on every axis. Cut. |
| Line total (agg.profit_daily, Sep to Dec 2025) | $15,462 | 18% |
2025 Sold from sheet 1225. The Proposed column and total are my plan, applying the margin and ad logic to the sold figures. "Reprice" means raise the price before reordering, because the SKU has demand (it sold out) but its price is too low to clear the FBA fee.
| Product | 2025 Sold | Proposed 2026 | Move | Why (margin-first) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Plaid Tie | 2,016 | 3,200 | +59% | 29% margin, $7K profit. Grow hardest. |
| Bowtie Red Plaid | 2,219 | 2,300 | +4% | 24% margin, $4.7K profit. Keep, cap near what it sells. |
| Snowflakes on Parade | 558 | 900 | +61% | 33% margin, sold out. Best margin on the line. |
| Santa & Friends | 436 | 750 | +72% | 26% margin, organic, sold out. |
| O Christmas Tree | 503 | 750 | +49% | 23% margin, sold out. |
| Lit Like a Tree | 489 | 450 | -8% | Only 8% margin. Keep but do not grow. |
| Snowflakes R&W | 347 | 375 | +8% | 19% margin, slight overbuy last year. Hold. |
| Jingle Jaws | 224 | 275 | +23% | 17% margin, nearly cleared on no ads. |
| Preppy Reindeer | 104 | 200 | +92% | 22% margin, sold out on a small base. |
| Mean Green | 57 | 120 | +111% | Thin 7% margin but sold out. Small scale-up. |
| Let it Snow | 253 | 400 | reprice +58% | Popular (sold out Nov 16) but -9% at $5.17. Raise price, then reorder. |
| Tree Navy Blue | 485 | 500 | reprice +3% | -2% at $8.26. Small price bump flips it. Hold flat after. |
| Ho Ho Ho! | 294 | 300 | reprice +2% | -7%, sold out. Reprice up, then hold. |
| Tropical XMAS | 282 | 300 | +6% | Thin 7% margin, ad-heavy. Hold. |
| Jolly Snowman | 373 | 0 | cut | -$922, -43%. Worst SKU. Drop. |
| Santa is Coming | 177 | 0 | cut | -5%, paid crutch, left stock. Drop. |
| Made For Christmas | 417 | 0 | cut | -3%, left 83 units. Drop or reprice and retest small. |
| Berry Blue | 105 | 0 | cut | -8%, low price, left stock. Drop. |
| Total (2025 sold: sheet 1225; proposed: my plan, assumption) | 8,966 | 10,820 | +21% |
The real constraint on this line is the FBA fee, not demand. FBA takes $2.64 to $4.25 on every unit regardless of price (agg.profit_daily). At an $11.34 price the Red Plaid Tie still keeps 29%; at a $5.17 price Let it Snow keeps nothing. Every tie under $7 is fighting a losing math problem.
So the highest-leverage move for 2026 is not only buying more of the winners, it is raising prices on the low-ASP SKUs that sold out. They proved demand (they ran dry), which is exactly the signal that says you have room to charge more. Lift Let it Snow, Ho Ho Ho, and Navy Blue toward the $8 to $9 range and they swing from losers to earners without losing the volume.
Then the timing levers still apply: land the initial buy before the early-October Prime event, and schedule a December restock on the proven earners so they do not run dry mid-December again.
If your number is higher than 10,820, add units only to the SKUs above 20% margin that sold out: Red Plaid Tie, Snowflakes on Parade, Santa & Friends, O Christmas Tree. Every unit there earns. Do not buy back the cut SKUs to hit a number.
If your number is lower, take it from the reprice group (Let it Snow, Navy Blue, Ho Ho Ho) and the thin earners (Lit Like a Tree, Tropical), not from the high-margin winners.