The recommendation in one line: put the money behind the ties that sell themselves, stop funding the ones that only move on expensive ads, and cap the Bowtie. My plan totals 11,935 units (my plan, assumption), which is 33% over the 8,966 sold in 2025 (sheet 1225). It is not an across-the-board increase. It grows six proven organic winners hard, holds the middle, and zeroes out two paid-crutch SKUs.
The new lens here is advertising efficiency. ACOS is ad spend divided by ad-attributed sales (lower is better). "Ad share" is the percent of a SKU's revenue that came from paid ads (lower means it sells on its own). A tie that sold out on a 1% ad share is a very different animal from one that needed ads to drive 61% of its sales and still did not clear.
Sorted by ad share (how dependent the SKU was on paid). Green band sells itself, gray band needs paid help, red band is a paid crutch. Sold-out and leftover come from the order tracker; price, spend, ACOS and ad share come from the warehouse.
| Product | Price | Ad spend | ACOS | Ad share | Sold out? | Left | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa & Friends | $9.16 | $20 | 38% | 1% | yes | 10 | Sells itself |
| Jingle Jaws | $7.64 | $28 | 93% | 2% | near | 26 | Sells itself |
| Snowflakes on Parade | $8.17 | $124 | 39% | 7% | yes | 0 | Sells itself |
| Preppy Reindeer | $7.23 | $23 | 38% | 8% | yes | 0 | Sells itself |
| Red Plaid Tie | $11.34 | $469 | 16% | 12% | yes | 0 | Sells itself |
| Mean Green | $8.76 | $87 | 46% | 15% | yes | 0 | Sells itself |
| O Christmas Tree | $8.62 | $317 | 43% | 17% | yes | 0 | Ad-assisted |
| Bowtie Red Plaid | $7.19 | $2,189 | 50% | 22% | no | 1,581 | Ad-assisted |
| Let it Snow | $5.17 | $28 | 8% | 26% | yes | 0 | Ad-assisted (cheap) |
| Snowflakes R&W | $7.88 | $123 | 15% | 29% | no | 94 | Ad-assisted |
| Lit Like a Tree | $7.87 | $403 | 29% | 36% | yes | 11 | Ad-assisted |
| Berry Blue | $6.81 | $115 | 43% | 37% | no | 22 | Ad-assisted |
| Made For Christmas | $7.24 | $447 | 37% | 39% | no | 83 | Ad-assisted |
| Tropical XMAS | $8.34 | $424 | 37% | 46% | yes | 10 | Paid crutch |
| Tree Navy Blue | $8.26 | $822 | 39% | 53% | yes | 1 | Paid crutch |
| Ho Ho Ho! | $7.50 | $517 | 41% | 55% | yes | 0 | Paid crutch |
| Jolly Snowman | $5.68 | $671 | 57% | 55% | no | 193 | Paid crutch |
| Santa is Coming | $7.63 | $466 | 56% | 61% | no | 57 | Paid crutch |
2025 Sold from sheet 1225. The Proposed column and total are my plan, applying the logic in the Why column to the sold figures. This is the number I would place.
| Product | 2025 Sold | Proposed 2026 | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Plaid Tie | 2,016 | 3,200 | +59% | Best SKU: top price, 16% ACOS, sold out. Grow hardest. |
| Snowflakes on Parade | 558 | 850 | +52% | Organic (7% ad share), sold out. |
| O Christmas Tree | 503 | 750 | +49% | Sold out, moderate ad lean. |
| Santa & Friends | 436 | 700 | +61% | Pure organic (1% ad share), sold out. |
| Lit Like a Tree | 489 | 700 | +43% | Sold out, ad-assisted. Grow. |
| Let it Snow | 253 | 650 | +157% | 8% ACOS, gone by Nov 16. Most upside per ad dollar. |
| Tree Navy Blue | 485 | 650 | +34% | Sold out but 53% ad-dependent. Grow moderately. |
| Ho Ho Ho! | 294 | 425 | +45% | Sold out but paid-heavy. Grow moderately. |
| Tropical XMAS | 282 | 425 | +51% | Sold out, paid-heavy. Grow moderately. |
| Made For Christmas | 417 | 425 | +2% | Ad-assisted, just cleared. Hold flat. |
| Snowflakes R&W | 347 | 375 | +8% | Efficient but slight overbuy. Hold. |
| Jingle Jaws | 224 | 275 | +23% | Nearly cleared on almost no ads. Modest grow. |
| Preppy Reindeer | 104 | 220 | +112% | Organic, sold out on a small base. Scale up. |
| Mean Green | 57 | 150 | +163% | Sold out tiny test. Scale to a real position. |
| Berry Blue | 105 | 140 | +33% | Small, ad-assisted. Small grow. |
| Jolly Snowman | 373 | 0 | cut | Paid crutch (55% ad share, 57% ACOS), 193 left. Drop. |
| Santa is Coming | 177 | 0 | cut | Worst paid crutch (61% ad share, 56% ACOS), 57 left. Drop. |
| Bowtie Red Plaid | 2,219 | 2,000 | -10% | Cap below what it sold. Low margin, 50% ACOS, 1,581 left last year. |
| Total (2025 sold: sheet 1225; proposed: my plan, assumption) | 8,966 | 11,935 | +33% |
If your number is higher than 11,935, do not spread the extra evenly. Add it to the four that sell themselves and ran out: Red Plaid Tie, Let it Snow, Santa & Friends, Snowflakes on Parade. They cost the least in ad dollars to sell and they hit a wall on stock, so more units there is the cleanest return.
If your number is lower, trim the paid-heavy grows first: Navy Blue, Ho Ho Ho, Tropical. They sold out, so they earn a place, but every unit needs ad support, so they are where to give ground before touching the organic winners.
Two levers beyond quantity carry over from the season read: get the initial buy landed before the early-October Prime event (last year stock arrived Oct 23 to 28 and missed it), and schedule a December replenishment on the organic winners so they do not run dry mid-December again. Quantity fixes the size of the bet; timing fixes whether you can collect it.